A Hierarchical State-Based Asset Pricing Model

The exponential growth and variety of studies on returns highlights the need for a comprehensive bridge between theory and empirics. The paper addresses this demand by proposing a hierarchi- cal state-based asset pricing model built on two interconnected solutions: the state space of assets and explanatory gain decomposition approach. Inspired by the reinforcement learning applications, the state space of assets represents a generic and consolidated description of the stochastic environment based on observable fundamental and macroeconomic characteristics. The decomposition approach in turn tackles the complexity and heterogeneity of underlying effects enabling a switch from kitchen-sink opaque analyses to a hierarchy of piecewise transparent models. The proposed model is demonstrated along the path from asset valuation to multifactor applications inclusive of boosting the explanatory power of price-to-fundamental regressions, resolving the weak correlation between the HML and RMW factors, and shedding light on HML performance through cross-sector dynamics. Overall, the state-based approach constitutes an alternative and complementary direction to multifactor models, extending the focus of empirical research to under the hood of factors with a hierarchical state space of assets.

Hot Questions on Asset Pricing

The video explores hot questions on asset pricing grouped into the following four categories:

  • Severity and longevity of gap between theory and empirics
  • Missing implementation of state of nature
  • Incompatibility of all-in flat description for heterogenous anomalies
  • Review of proposed hierarchical state-based asset pricing model
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Uncovering Momentum

In this post we review our latest studies leading to the explanation of the momentum premium, a long-term ongoing challenge.  Documented in 1993 by Jegadeesh and Titman, the momentum phenomenon remained an open question with no single model dominating the narrative (Fama on Momentum, 2016). Our research transparently explains the momentum premium for 2010-2019 as the sampling of high volatility growth stocks. These results were derived through a sequence of two SSRN papers.